Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Polls and more.
(Updates at the end.)
Polls - I don’t put too much stock in them, for reasons I outline at the end of this post. I’ll also post other polls here if I get a chance.
Ipsos-Reid poll
Released Oct 30, conducted between Oct. 22 and 26. 800 surveyed provincewide with margin of error at 3.5%.
PCs – 50%
Liberals – 26%
NDP – 10%
Alberta Alliance – 9%
Undecided – 15%
Compass Poll
Released November 8. Telephone interviews to 500 Albertan adults, conducted on Nov. 3 and Nov. 4, 2004. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent. Alliance not included.
Conservative - 61%
Liberal - 19%
New Democratic Party - 16%
Green - 3%
Separation Party - 1%
Other - 1%
While the differences between these polls may or may not be within the margin of error (hard to tell due to different methodologies), the difference between them would result in a huge difference in outcomes in terms of seats. Also, the Compass poll reports decided voters only, which tends to skew results a bit. I don’t know if they pushed leaners or not.
I think the basic position in early November was PC-50, Lib-25, ND-15, AA-8. Now, the question is, has anything changed since then? Global has a new poll out, but I don’t have those numbers yet.
UPDATE - I copied this down from the TV really quickly; I may have made transcription errors. UPDATE 2 - got new numbers from Anand’s webboard post.
GlobalTV Alberta poll
Conducted over one week, 900 voters province-wide.
PC - 41%
Lib - 18%
ND - 10%
AA - 8%
Greens - 5%
SC - 1 %
Others - 3%
Undecided - 13%
I’m not sure of these numbers, but they do look a bit weird. PCs around 40, but still over 20 points ahead of their nearest rival? Popular vote in previous years:
2001
PCs – 62%
Liberals – 27%
NDP – 8%
1997
PCs – 51%
Liberals – 33%
NDP – 9%
SC - 7%
The five-point difference for the Liberals resulted in an 11-seat difference for the Liberals - 18 in ‘97, 7 in ‘01. So I think if the Liberals can get to 30%, their seat count could well hit double digits.
Also of interest: Detailed riding results, 2001.
I think this year will be more like 1997 than 2001, simply because the AA will fill the role that the SoCreds did in ‘97, bleeding off a little PC support, and keeping the PC vote below 55%. I think both the Liberals and the NDs will gain seats. Having said that, if the Compass poll is a harbinger, the opposition parties will be lucky to get 8 seats combined.
The detailed riding results from 2001 show that many of the Edmonton ridings are within reach for any of the three main parties. Turnout is key. Edmonton will come down to the Liberals’ ground game. The ND’s ground game in their hot ridings will be excellent (I volunteered for Raj in his first election and was duly impressed), but I have absolutely no idea how strong the Liberals will be on the ground.
Truth be told, the PCs *should* be able to have a crushing ground game, simply because they have resources, resources, resources. Lots of cash. But I’m skeptical - I don’t know how motivated their base is compared to the oppositions’. Not very, I think.
UPDATE 3: New Ipsos poll is out.
Decided voters, Nov. 12 -17.
Conservatives - 44%
Alberta Liberals - 29%
Alberta NDP - 12%
Alberta Alliance - 9%
Alberta Greens - 4%
