Edmonton polls.
Ipsos-Reid
Methodology: 800 surveyed provincewide with margin of error at 3.5%, conducted between Oct. 22 and 26, 2004. Don’t know the Edmonton number surveyed.
In Edmonton:
PCs – 38%
Liberals – 35%
NDP – 14 %
Alberta Alliance – 8%
Global TV
260 people were polled in Edmonton from Nov. 8 to 16.
The poll is considered accurate 19 times out of 20 with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 per cent.
PCs – 35%
Liberals – 23%
NDP – 17 %
AA - 6%
Undecided – 19%
The undecideds in the Ipsos poll are not specified in the numbers I have, but it’s the same poll noted below, so I’ll assume they didn’t push leaners. That means that either the Edmonton numbers are of decided voters only, or there were few undecideds in their sample (<5%).
Now, I have a hard time believing the Liberals have *lost* 1/3 of their support in two weeks - especially in light of the awful PC campaign (not a lot of content, and those dumb AISH comments). So one of these polls is off. Personally, I really like the Liberals’ platform (disclaimer: I do paid work for them) and think that they’re closer to the PCs than the Global poll indicates. I’m not sure how the NDs are doing.
A big part of this is going to be how the undecideds (19% in the Global poll) break. Typically, undecideds break late against the incumbent; however, there are two main challengers, so I don’t think this will redound against the PCs much.
Ipsos does strict voter id, they don’t push pull at all.
And their Edmonton results are spread out over the capital region - they phone into the burbs in addition to the city itself, so they give really spread out numbers. It’s therefore hard to interpret, due to their N, if support is concentrated and therefore a better indication of seats.
Changes shown by compass poll results were well within the margin of error of the poll done at the beginning of the campaign. There was movement shown in the compass poll (I believe the headline was, NDP up at Liberals’ expense) but beyond the spin advantage, this poll isn’t really indicative of movement. Plus, their N is alot smaller, and they didn’t break out results for Edmonton, meaning that those results were relatively unreliable. Meaning that in the places where movement matters, it doesn’t give us any information.
So the compass poll is relatively useless, in my view, for the purposes of making seat predictions.
Another point to consider: ipsos went into the field at the very beginning of the campaign. So it doesn’t give us a good sense of whether or not things have shifted during the campaign.
Polls are good for strategic purposes. with FPTP, they’re a shit indicator of seat counts.
And so that’s why one Alberta party proposes PR. Only one, mind you. Which is too bad.
Posted by on 11/19 at 11:22 AM
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