Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Edmonton polls.
Ipsos-Reid
Methodology: 800 surveyed provincewide with margin of error at 3.5%, conducted between Oct. 22 and 26, 2004. Don’t know the Edmonton number surveyed.
In Edmonton:
PCs – 38%
Liberals – 35%
NDP – 14 %
Alberta Alliance – 8%
Global TV
260 people were polled in Edmonton from Nov. 8 to 16.
The poll is considered accurate 19 times out of 20 with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 per cent.
PCs – 35%
Liberals – 23%
NDP – 17 %
AA - 6%
Undecided – 19%
The undecideds in the Ipsos poll are not specified in the numbers I have, but it’s the same poll noted below, so I’ll assume they didn’t push leaners. That means that either the Edmonton numbers are of decided voters only, or there were few undecideds in their sample (<5%).
Now, I have a hard time believing the Liberals have *lost* 1/3 of their support in two weeks - especially in light of the awful PC campaign (not a lot of content, and those dumb AISH comments). So one of these polls is off. Personally, I really like the Liberals’ platform (disclaimer: I do paid work for them) and think that they’re closer to the PCs than the Global poll indicates. I’m not sure how the NDs are doing.
A big part of this is going to be how the undecideds (19% in the Global poll) break. Typically, undecideds break late against the incumbent; however, there are two main challengers, so I don’t think this will redound against the PCs much.
